英国国家经济和社会研究所：2025年分析财政大臣的税收选择报告（英文版）

In our recent forecasts, NIESR have highlighted the need to raise revenue as part of the “Chancellor’s Trilemma”, with forecasts suggesting that the government is not on track to meet its ‘stability rule’, with a current projected deficit of £41.2 billion in the fiscal year 2029-30 (NIESR, 2025). Given that it is likely that the OBR will forecast a current deficit in 2029-30 – with commentators suggesting numbers between £20 and £30 billion – if the Chancellor is to stick to her fiscal rules,