期刊文章

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a si...

We use plausibly exogenous variation in the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues in Peru to study whether transfers to local governments can stimulate economic activity in lowincome areas. We show that resource...

isinformation is not new, but g...

The rise of Generative AI (GenAI) in knowledge workflows raises questions about its impact on critical thinking skills and practices. We survey 319 knowledge workers to investigate 1) when and how they perceive the enaction of critical thinking wh...

Social welfare costs from bank resolution, including contagion and moral hazard, are often thought to be minimized when supervisors can direct the merger of a failing bank with a sound, healthy one. However, social losses may become even larger i...

EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlar...

We evaluate the short- and long-run effects of a large conditional cash transfer program that paid students to remain in full-time education beyond the compulsory school-leaving age. The Education Maintenance Allowance paid teenagers from low-inco...

Using thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index measuring girls’ conformity to gender norms. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase i...

The optimal design of incentive contracts critically depends on whether the tasks performed by agents are complementary or substitutable, yet empirical evidence on this remains limited. This paper develops a novel empirical strategy to identify co...

We pair variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution decreases test scores. These results...

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly with the development ofLarge Language Models (LLMs) built on the transformer architecture, has redefined thecapabilities of natural language processing. These models now exhibit remark...

As the technology to manufacture heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) that produce zero tailpipe emissions grows increasingly mature, a path forward for addressing the climate and air quality impacts from these vehicles is emerging. Currently, HDVs are the ...

Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which mac...

This paper presents the results from a novel field experiment that examined the impact of in- creasing the presence of revenue authority officers on tax compliance and tax morale among small and medium-size enterprises in a lower-income country. T...

2024 年前三季度我国直接投资、证券投 资、其他投资三项均出现净流出。外商对华直接投 资放缓，我国对外直接投资加速，直接投资净流出 幅度有所扩大。此外，虽然外商对华证券投资状况 趋好，但我国的短期资本净流出仍在扩大。对直接 投资进行分析，可以认为此轮流入下降更多由短期 因素驱动，对华长期投资降幅较小，外资下降是从 前期高位的回归，要应对外资下降需要综合手段。 在复杂的外部环境下，为实现稳外资，我国需要多 管齐下，通过综合施策和精准施策，增强对长期资 本的吸引力，同时关注影响短期资本流动的...

在大国有战争时代，稳固的强联盟是霸权国增加实力、获得战争胜利从而以自身偏好塑造国际秩 序的有效途径。大国无战争时代和内嵌型的对手特征增加了霸权国对弱联盟的使用偏好，核武器的出现、主 权原则深入人心和经济相互依赖使得大国之间爆发战争变得异常困难，同时，作为霸权国的美国面对的竞争 对手内嵌于其主导的国际秩序，中国与美国的亚太盟友有着紧密联系，因此弱联盟成为美国参与亚太地区规 则秩序竞争的有效补充策略。弱联盟基于实用主义取向，可以基于不同议题不断重新选择小集团成员，更具 灵活性塑造基于规则的秩序...

近来，中国与中亚五国农业合作不断深化， 农产品贸易快速发展。中国与中亚的农产品贸易主要集中于哈 萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦，与塔吉克斯坦和土 库曼斯坦的农产品贸易额相对较小。中国从中亚五国进口的农 产品以谷物、食用油籽、棉花和棉纱线为主，对中亚出口主要 以水果和杂类食品为主，存在规模小、产品结构单一、区域不 平衡等问题。中国对中亚五国的农业投资规模不高、波动较 大，以绿地投资为主，并购投资规模很小，主要分布于哈萨克 斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦三国。投资领域存在投资 壁垒较高...

Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income coun tries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of p...