学术论文

This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM...

Multivalued treatments are commonplace in applications. We explore the use of discrete-valued instruments to control for selection bias in this setting. Our discussion revolves around the concept of targeting: which instruments target which treatm...

The persuasion rate is a key parameter for measuring the causal effect of a directional message on influencing the recipient’s behavior. Its identification has relied on exogenous treatment or the availability of credible instruments, but the requ...

We study spillover eects within criminal networks by leveraging the deaths of co-oenders as a source of causal identi cation. We nd that the death of a co-oender signi cantly reduces the criminal activities of other network members. These spillov...

Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions ...

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a si...

We use plausibly exogenous variation in the redistribution of natural resource tax revenues in Peru to study whether transfers to local governments can stimulate economic activity in lowincome areas. We show that resource...

isinformation is not new, but g...

The rise of Generative AI (GenAI) in knowledge workflows raises questions about its impact on critical thinking skills and practices. We survey 319 knowledge workers to investigate 1) when and how they perceive the enaction of critical thinking wh...

Social welfare costs from bank resolution, including contagion and moral hazard, are often thought to be minimized when supervisors can direct the merger of a failing bank with a sound, healthy one. However, social losses may become even larger i...

EU enlargement has stalled since the last member joined over ten years ago, marking the longest period without expansion since 1973. This elapsed time contrasts with the potential income gains membership promises. Drawing on the biggest EU enlar...

We evaluate the short- and long-run effects of a large conditional cash transfer program that paid students to remain in full-time education beyond the compulsory school-leaving age. The Education Maintenance Allowance paid teenagers from low-inco...

Using thousands of essays written by 11-year-olds in 1969, we construct an index measuring girls’ conformity to gender norms. We link this index to outcomes over the life-cycle. Conditional on age-11 covariates, a one standard deviation increase i...

The optimal design of incentive contracts critically depends on whether the tasks performed by agents are complementary or substitutable, yet empirical evidence on this remains limited. This paper develops a novel empirical strategy to identify co...

We pair variation stemming from volcanic eruptions with the census of Hawai‘i’s public schools student test scores to estimate the impact of PM2.5 and SO2 on student performance. Increased particulate pollution decreases test scores. These results...

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, particularly with the development ofLarge Language Models (LLMs) built on the transformer architecture, has redefined thecapabilities of natural language processing. These models now exhibit remark...

As the technology to manufacture heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) that produce zero tailpipe emissions grows increasingly mature, a path forward for addressing the climate and air quality impacts from these vehicles is emerging. Currently, HDVs are the ...

Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which mac...